Result probabilities
70%FC Porto
20%Draw
10%Estoril
Expected goals 2.1 – 0.7
Score probabilities
Most likely: 2-0 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 3-0 (10%) | | Estoril goals |
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| | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ |
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| FC Porto goals | 0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | | | |
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| 1 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 1 | | |
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| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 1 | | |
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| 3 | 10 | 6 | 2 | | | |
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| 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | | | |
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| 5+ | 3 | 2 | 1 | | | |
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% chance of each score. Blue FC Porto win, grey draw, amber Estoril win; darker is likelier. Outlined: our predicted score.
1FC Porto’s home dominance (4 wins, 9 goals scored, 2 conceded) and clean sheet record.
2Estoril’s poor away performance (0 wins, 4 losses, 2 goals scored, 7 conceded).
3The expected goal difference (2.1 for Porto vs. 0.7 for Estoril), reflecting attacking and defensive capabilities.
4FC Porto’s consistency in scoring (0 failed to score at home) versus Estoril’s frequent failure to score away.
5The model’s historical comparison of attack/defense metrics against league averages.
The statistical model strongly favors FC Porto due to their dominant home performance and Estoril's dire away record. FC Porto’s current form of eight consecutive wins, combined with their perfect home record (4 wins, 9 goals scored, 2 conceded), highlights their consistency and defensive solidity. Their ability to maintain clean sheets (4 in 4 home games) and avoid failing to score (0 instances) underscores their reliability at this venue. In contrast, Estoril’s current form (DLLLDLLL) and poor away performance (0 wins, 4 losses, 2 goals scored, 7 conceded) suggest significant struggles in both attack and defense. The model’s expected goals (2.1 for Porto, 0.7 for Estoril) align with these trends, reflecting Porto’s attacking prowess and Estoril’s defensive fragility. The most likely score (2-0) is a direct result of Porto’s ability to capitalize on chances and Estoril’s inability to counter effectively.
Less likely outcomes, such as a draw or an Estoril win, would require significant deviations from these patterns. A draw might occur if Porto’s attack falters or Estoril’s defense manages to limit scoring opportunities, though Estoril’s away record makes this improbable. An Estoril win would necessitate a complete reversal of their current form, including a rare away goal and a defensive display far beyond their historical performance. However, given the statistical disparity, these scenarios remain outliers.
How accurate are our predictions? See the record →
Primeira Liga
