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Excelsior vs Twente - Eredivisie prediction, preview and lineups

EredivisieEredivisie
Round 11
Excelsior logoExcelsior(Pos. 10)
VS
1 Nov 202613:30
Twente logoTwente(Pos. 5)

1 Nov 2026, 13:30

Stadion Woudestein, Rotterdam

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AI Pre-Match Analysis

Score Prediction
1-2
Confidence
Medium55%
Result probabilities
22%Excelsior
22%Draw
55%Twente

Expected goals 1.3 – 2.1

Score probabilities
Most likely: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%)
Twente goals
012345+
Excelsior goals0467532
141010742
2366421
3133211
4111
5+

% chance of each score. Blue Excelsior win, grey draw, amber Twente win; darker is likelier. Outlined: our predicted score.

Key Factors
1Twente's strong away performance (7 goals scored, 5 conceded) versus Excelsior's poor home defense (5 scored, 10 conceded).
2The expected goal difference (Twente 2.1 vs Excelsior 1.3), reflecting Twente's superior attacking and defensive capabilities.
3Current form: Twente's 6 wins in 9 games compared to Excelsior's 3 wins in 9 games.
4Excelsior's home clean sheets (2) and Twente's away clean sheets (2) indicating potential for low-scoring games but also Twente's reliability.
5Twente's ability to score away (7 goals in 4 games) versus Excelsior's limited home scoring (5 goals in 4 games).
The model's preference for Twente stems from their superior away performance compared to Excelsior's weak home record. Twente has scored 7 goals in 4 away games this season, while conceding only 5, reflecting a balanced attack and defense. In contrast, Excelsior has managed just 5 goals in 4 home games, alongside 10 conceded, indicating significant defensive vulnerabilities at home. Twente's overall form (LWWDWWWDL) also suggests greater consistency, with 6 wins in their last 9 matches, compared to Excelsior's inconsistent WLWWDLDLL. The expected goals (1.3 for Excelsior, 2.1 for Twente) align with these trends, as Twente's attacking efficiency and defensive solidity away from home create a clear advantage. However, Excelsior's home clean sheets (2) and Twente's occasional defensive lapses (1 away clean sheet) could allow for upsets, though their low scoring rate at home limits their chances.
How accurate are our predictions? See the record →