Result probabilities
26%Estac Troyes
23%Draw
51%Le Mans
Expected goals 1.4 – 2.0
Score probabilities
Most likely: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 0-2 (7%) | | Le Mans goals |
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| | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ |
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| Estac Troyes goals | 0 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
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| 1 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 2 |
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| 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
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| 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
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| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | | |
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| 5+ | | | | | | |
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% chance of each score. Blue Estac Troyes win, grey draw, amber Le Mans win; darker is likelier. Outlined: our predicted score.
1Estac Troyes' home defense (11 goals conceded in 4 matches)
2Le Mans' away attacking efficiency (4 goals scored in 3 away games)
3Estac Troyes' failure to score at home in 4 of their last 5 matches
4Le Mans' away defensive record (7 goals conceded in 3 away games)
5Current form of both teams (Troyes' 6-game winless streak vs Le Mans' 1 win in 7 games)
The model's strong favoring of Le Mans is primarily driven by Estac Troyes' abysmal home defensive record, which has seen them concede 11 goals in just four matches at this venue. This vulnerability is compounded by Troyes' inability to score at home, with four consecutive games failing to register a goal. Conversely, Le Mans, despite a mixed away record, has demonstrated a more consistent attacking output on the road, scoring 4 goals in their last three away games. The expected goal differential (1.4 vs 2.0) further underscores Le Mans' attacking superiority and Troyes' defensive frailty. However, the less likely outcomes—such as a Troyes win or draw—could materialize if Le Mans' away defense (which has conceded 7 goals in three matches) falters or if Troyes' attacking inefficiency is offset by a rare moment of clinical finishing.
How accurate are our predictions? See the record →
Ligue 1
Estac Troyes(Pos. 17)
Le Mans(Pos. 16)