Result probabilities
44%Bologna
25%Draw
32%Monza
Expected goals 1.8 – 1.5
Score probabilities
Most likely: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%) | | Monza goals |
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| | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ |
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| Bologna goals | 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
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| 1 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
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| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
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| 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
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| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | | |
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| 5+ | 1 | 1 | 1 | | | |
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% chance of each score. Blue Bologna win, grey draw, amber Monza win; darker is likelier. Outlined: our predicted score.
1Bologna’s home attack (4 goals in 4 games) versus Monza’s weak away defense (11 goals conceded in 4 games).
2Monza’s overall offensive strength (13 goals in 7 games) versus Bologna’s inconsistent home defense (7 goals conceded in 4 games).
3Bologna’s lack of clean sheets at home (0) and Monza’s away clean sheet (1) indicating defensive reliability differences.
4Monza’s failure to score in 0 away games compared to Bologna’s 3 failures at home, highlighting scoring consistency.
5Expected goal differential (1.8-1.5) favoring Bologna, reflecting the model’s attack/defense ratings against league averages.
The statistical model favors Bologna’s win due to their home advantage and Monza’s weak away performance. Bologna’s home record, though not strong (0 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses), shows they score 4 goals per game at home, which aligns with the model’s expected goal prediction of 1.8 for Bologna. Monza’s away form is dire, with 0 wins, 3 losses, and 11 goals conceded in 4 games, suggesting their defense is vulnerable. This imbalance in attack and defense ratings likely drives the model’s 44% win probability for Bologna. However, Monza’s overall offensive strength (13 goals in 7 games) could challenge Bologna’s home defense, which has conceded 7 goals in 4 matches. A draw (25% chance) might occur if Monza’s away defense improves slightly or if Bologna’s attack falters, but their home scoring rate suggests they are more likely to break Monza’s defense. Monza’s 32% win probability hinges on their ability to exploit Bologna’s home defensive weaknesses, but their away record makes this outcome less probable.
How accurate are our predictions? See the record →
Serie A
