Result probabilities
72%Bodo/Glimt
17%Draw
11%Lille
Expected goals 2.6 – 1.0
Score probabilities
Most likely: 2-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 3-0 (8%) | | Lille goals |
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| | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ |
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| Bodo/Glimt goals | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | | | |
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| 1 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 1 | | |
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| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | | |
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| 3 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | | |
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| 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | | |
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| 5+ | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | | |
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% chance of each score. Blue Bodo/Glimt win, grey draw, amber Lille win; darker is likelier. Outlined: our predicted score.
1Bodo/Glimt's strong home record (3 wins, 7 goals scored, 2 conceded) versus Lille's poor away performance (0 points, 0 goals scored).
2Bodo/Glimt's attacking efficiency (16 goals in 7 games) compared to Lille's defensive frailty (10 conceded in 3 games).
3Lille's inability to score in their only away game this season, which may hinder their chances of securing a result.
4Bodo/Glimt's clean sheet record at home (2 in 3 games) versus Lille's lack of clean sheets (0 in 1 away game).
5Current form: Bodo/Glimt's DWWWLWL (suggesting resilience) vs Lille's LLL (highlighting a downturn in performance).
Bodo/Glimt's home form in this competition is highly favorable, with 3 consecutive wins, 7 goals scored, and only 2 conceded across 3 matches. Their current form (DWWWLWL) suggests consistency, and their overall record of 16 goals scored in 7 games highlights a potent attack. In contrast, Lille's away performance is dire, with 0 points from 1 game, 0 goals scored, and 3 conceded. Their overall record (4 scored, 10 conceded) and current form (LLL) indicate significant defensive vulnerabilities and an inability to score consistently. The model's prediction of a 72% chance for Bodo/Glimt to win aligns with their dominant home record and Lille's poor away stats. However, Lille's potential to score if they capitalize on rare chances or Bodo/Glimt's occasional defensive lapses (evident from their 1 failed-to-score game at home) could lead to a draw or even a Lille win, though these outcomes remain statistically unlikely.
The expected goals (2.6 for Bodo/Glimt vs 1.0 for Lille) reflect Bodo/Glimt's attacking efficiency and Lille's struggles both offensively and defensively. Bodo/Glimt's clean sheets (2 in 3 home games) contrast sharply with Lille's 0 clean sheets in their only away game, further emphasizing the disparity in defensive organization. Lille's failure to score in their away match raises concerns about their ability to break down Bodo/Glimt's defense, which has conceded only 2 goals at home. However, if Lille's attackers manage to create opportunities or Bodo/Glimt's defense falters, the match could deviate from the model's prediction.
How accurate are our predictions? See the record →
Champions L.
