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Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart - Bundesliga prediction, preview and lineups

BundesligaBundesliga
Round 8
Bayer Leverkusen logoBayer Leverkusen(Pos. 4)
VS
31 Oct 202614:30
VfB Stuttgart logoVfB Stuttgart(Pos. 13)

31 Oct 2026, 14:30

BayArena, Leverkusen

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AI Pre-Match Analysis

Score Prediction
2-0
Confidence
Medium70%
Result probabilities
70%Bayer Leverkusen
19%Draw
11%VfB Stuttgart

Expected goals 2.3 – 0.8

Score probabilities
Most likely: 2-0 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%)
VfB Stuttgart goals
012345+
Bayer Leverkusen goals0531
110931
2121041
39731
4542
5+431

% chance of each score. Blue Bayer Leverkusen win, grey draw, amber VfB Stuttgart win; darker is likelier. Outlined: our predicted score.

Key Factors
1Bayer Leverkusen’s dominant home record (3 wins, 8 goals scored, 1 conceded) and strong defensive consistency.
2VfB Stuttgart’s poor away performance (3 away losses, 8 goals conceded) and limited goal output (4 scored in 4 away games).
3The significant disparity in expected goals (2.3 for Leverkusen vs 0.8 for Stuttgart), reflecting attacking and defensive imbalances.
4Leverkusen’s overall form (LWDWWW) and high scoring rate (16 goals in 6 games) compared to Stuttgart’s inconsistent results (LWLLWL).
5Stuttgart’s away clean sheets (1) and failed to score instances (2), indicating defensive and attacking reliability issues on the road.
The statistical model strongly favors Bayer Leverkusen due to their dominant home performance and superior attacking and defensive metrics. Leverkusen’s home record this season is flawless, with 3 wins, 8 goals scored, and only 1 conceded, indicating a highly effective home setup. Their overall form (LWDWWW) and high goal output (16 scored in 6 games) suggest a team in good rhythm, while their defense has maintained 2 clean sheets in home matches. In contrast, VfB Stuttgart’s away record is weak, with 1 win, 3 losses, and 8 goals conceded in 4 away games, reflecting significant defensive vulnerabilities. Their current form (LWLLWL) and low away goal tally (4 scored) further highlight inconsistency. The model’s expected goals (2.3-0.8) align with Leverkusen’s attacking strength and Stuttgart’s defensive frailties. However, an upset could occur if Stuttgart’s away defense improves unexpectedly or if Leverkusen’s attacking efficiency dips, though the data does not suggest such scenarios are likely.
How accurate are our predictions? See the record →