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Arouca vs Nacional - Primeira Liga prediction, preview and lineups

Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga
Round 10
Arouca logoArouca(Pos. 5)
VS
1 Nov 202615:30
Nacional logoNacional(Pos. 16)

1 Nov 2026, 15:30

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AI Pre-Match Analysis

Score Prediction
2-0
Confidence
Medium63%
Result probabilities
63%Arouca
22%Draw
15%Nacional

Expected goals 2.1 – 0.9

Score probabilities
Most likely: 2-0 (11%), 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%)
Nacional goals
012345+
Arouca goals06421
191041
2111051
37731
44421
5+221

% chance of each score. Blue Arouca win, grey draw, amber Nacional win; darker is likelier. Outlined: our predicted score.

Key Factors
1Arouca's home defensive consistency (4 clean sheets in 4 matches) versus Nacional's away defensive frailty (8 goals conceded in 4 away games).
2Arouca's home attacking output (8 goals in 4 matches) compared to Nacional's away scoring inefficiency (4 goals in 4 away games).
3Arouca's current form (WWLWDLDW) indicating resilience, versus Nacional's winless streak (DWLLLLLL) suggesting a lack of momentum.
4Arouca's ability to avoid failing to score at home (only 2 instances in 8 matches) versus Nacional's frequent failure to score away (3 instances in 4 games).
5The expected goal difference (2.1-0.9) reflecting Arouca's superior home attack and Nacional's vulnerable away defense.
The model's preference for Arouca's victory stems from their dominant home performance and Nacional's dire away record. Arouca has maintained a strong defensive record at home, with 4 clean sheets in their last 4 matches, conceding only 3 goals. Their attacking efficiency at home is also notable, scoring 8 goals across those games, which aligns with their overall league average of 11 goals in 8 matches. In contrast, Nacional's away form is catastrophic, with 8 goals conceded in their last 4 away games and only 4 scored, reflecting a significant defensive weakness. Their current form (DWLLLLLL) further underscores their struggles, with just one win in eight games. While the model predicts a 2-0 scoreline, unexpected outcomes could arise if Nacional's defense manages to avoid further collapses or if Arouca's attack falters, though the statistical disparity suggests such scenarios are unlikely.
How accurate are our predictions? See the record →