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Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar - Eredivisie prediction, preview and lineups

EredivisieEredivisie
Round 11
Ajax logoAjax(Pos. 4)
VS
31 Oct 202620:00
AZ Alkmaar logoAZ Alkmaar(Pos. 2)

31 Oct 2026, 20:00

Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam

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AI Pre-Match Analysis

Score Prediction
1-2
Confidence
Low43%
Result probabilities
34%Ajax
23%Draw
43%AZ Alkmaar

Expected goals 1.8 – 2.0

Score probabilities
Most likely: 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (7%)
AZ Alkmaar goals
012345+
Ajax goals0345321
1398532
2477521
3244311
412211
5+111

% chance of each score. Blue Ajax win, grey draw, amber AZ Alkmaar win; darker is likelier. Outlined: our predicted score.

Key Factors
1AZ Alkmaar’s away form (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) and defensive consistency (3 clean sheets) compared to Ajax’s home struggles (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss).
2Expected goal differential (AZ: 2.0 vs. Ajax: 1.8), indicating AZ’s slight advantage in scoring and preventing goals.
3Ajax’s ability to maintain offensive output at home (11 goals in 5 games) could challenge AZ’s defense if AZ’s away clean sheets falter.
4AZ’s single failed-to-score instance away (compared to Ajax’s zero at home) highlights their reliability in scoring, which may pressure Ajax’s defense.
5The model’s historical weighting of home/away performance against league averages, which may undervalue Ajax’s home attack or overvalue AZ’s away defense.
The statistical model favors AZ Alkmaar winning due to their stronger away performance compared to Ajax’s inconsistent home record. AZ has a 3-1-1 record in their last five away games, scoring 11 goals and conceding only 7, with three clean sheets. This contrasts with Ajax’s home form, where they have only 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in five matches, scoring 11 but conceding 9. AZ’s away defense appears more reliable, which aligns with their higher expected goals (2.0) compared to Ajax’s 1.8. The model’s most likely score (1-2) reflects AZ’s slight edge in attack and defense at this venue. However, Ajax’s home attack (2.2 goals per game) matches AZ’s away attack, suggesting they could capitalize on defensive lapses. A draw might occur if both teams prioritize defense, but AZ’s superior away record and clean sheet record make this less probable.
How accurate are our predictions? See the record →