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AC Milan vs Bologna - Serie A preview, prediction and lineups

Serie ASerie A
Round 9
AC Milan logoAC Milan(Pos. 4)
VS
28 Oct 202617:30
Bologna logoBologna(Pos. 15)

28 Oct 2026, 17:30

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AI Pre-Match Analysis

Score Prediction
1-0
Confidence
Medium57%
Result probabilities
57%AC Milan
25%Draw
17%Bologna

Expected goals 1.7 – 0.8

Key Factors
1AC Milan's strong home form (3 wins, 8 goals scored, 2 conceded) and clean sheet record.
2Bologna's poor away performance (1 win, 2 losses, 2 goals scored, 3 conceded) and history of failing to score in away games.
3The expected goals differential (1.7 for AC Milan vs 0.8 for Bologna), reflecting the teams' attacking and defensive capabilities at this venue.
4AC Milan's ability to maintain defensive discipline at home, compared to Bologna's lack of away-game resilience.
5Bologna's overall low goal-scoring rate (6 goals in 7 games) and high conceded goals (10), which may limit their chances against a strong home side.
The statistical model favors AC Milan due to their dominant home performance and Bologna's weak away record. AC Milan has won all three home games in Serie A this season, scoring 8 goals while conceding only 2, indicating a strong defensive structure and attacking efficiency at San Siro. Their overall form (WWDDWDW) suggests consistency, with 4 wins in 7 matches, and their ability to maintain clean sheets at home (2 in 3 games) further reinforces their reliability. In contrast, Bologna's away record is dire, with just 1 win in 3 games, scoring only 2 goals while conceding 3. Their failure to score in 3 away matches this season highlights a critical weakness, making it unlikely they can trouble AC Milan's defense. The model's expected goals (1.7 for AC Milan, 0.8 for Bologna) align with these trends, as AC Milan's home attack and Bologna's away struggles suggest a low-scoring game where AC Milan's superiority is likely to prevail. However, upsets could occur if Bologna's away defense improves unexpectedly or if AC Milan's attack falters, though the data suggests such scenarios are improbable.
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